The Living Ledger

Ecosystem services · 180-day teaching replay

The Living Ledger

Ecosystems do work people depend on: forests store carbon, reefs protect coasts and pollinators help crops grow. This map follows those services and the evidence used to judge whether they are changing.

A forest can remain standing while providing less of a service. Managed hives can keep crop pollination steady while wild habitat declines. Following both the ecological condition and the delivered service helps reveal those differences.

Field ledger 07 / 12Jul 12, 2026100%

Explore a simulated 180-day record built for teaching.

Day 180 / 180Jul 12, 2026

Preparing the atlas…

Regulation + maintenance

Provisioning

Non-material

Watch

Warning

Action

Stale / unknown

Public lens

Start with the service people rely on

Each flower represents an ecosystem service. Choose one to see who relies on it, what is changing and what the evidence shows.

Selected: Reef 14
Who is affected: 186K people
How sure: high

Service sentence

9 visible · 9bioregions

Action

What changed

Reef 14

Reef 14 reached 9.6 °C-weeks of accumulated heat stress.

Where: Mesoamerican Caribbean
Evidence: validated threshold
Confidence: high
Exposed: 186K people

Alert desk

The claims that currently need attention

6 service systems are at Watch or higher. Data-quality alerts stay separate.

AT A GLANCE / 02

Service balance

Is nature still keeping up?

Each mark compares the condition of nature with whether the service is keeping up for people.

Skip to data table

9 service systems. The four areas help compare the condition of nature with whether the service is keeping up.

Mark size shows how many people or livelihoods are exposed. Color shows the alert level.

WHAT CHANGED / 03

Service story

What has changed over time?

Recorded values tell a clearer story than a single score. The alert line is a rule, not proof that the whole service has failed.

Skip to data table

180 recorded values for Reef 14. The alert line marks a rule; it does not prove the whole service has failed.

recorded changealert rule

SIX PARTS / 04

The Living Ledger

The service is not one number

Supply, demand, use, and value are related. They are not interchangeable. When the units do not line up, there is no ratio.

Skip to data table

Six evidence cells. Their units are not assumed to be commensurable, so the chart does not calculate a total or supply-demand ratio.

Any adequacy ratio shown here is defined only inside this service model and is not transferable.

FORWARD / BACKWARD / 05

Dependency / Evidence Web

What depends on this?

One network follows consequences forward. The other follows the claim backward.

Skip to data table

8 nodes and 7 connections. This view follows consequences forward.

BEFORE A CLAIM / 06

A careful evidence journey

How a signal earns a claim

A reading is checked before it can inform an indicator. Any unresolved record keeps the statement limited.

How a reading earns a careful claim

One selected service system · 6 replay records

1
A reading arrives
6 records from this service system entered the replay.
2
We check it before using it
6 records have passed the checks in this replay.
3
Then we make a limited statement
The checked records can inform an indicator, not a promise about the whole service.

Read the latest pipeline events

Jun 13Community access assessmentaccepted
Apr 14Community access assessmentaccepted
Feb 13Community access assessmentaccepted
May 26Canopy cooling deltaaccepted
Apr 12Canopy cooling deltaaccepted
Feb 7Canopy cooling deltaaccepted

Three warnings, three different claims

Three warnings, three different interpretations

Inspect the Artifact Contract

Why the warning exists

Reef 14 reached 9.6 °C-weeks of accumulated heat stress.

Claim state: supported · observation
Uncertainty: This threshold supports a heat-stress claim. Coastal-protection loss is modeled. Confidence is high; evidence freshness is current.
Scope: Mesoamerican Caribbean ·driver

Evidence boundary and time basis

Boundary: Selected-system replay projection
Transform: Filter the fixed teaching replay to one service system and replay date, then apply the system's bounded alert rule without promoting a pressure, forecast, or model into an observed outcome.
Event time: 2026-07-10T00:00:00.000Z
Snapshot: 2026-07-12T00:00:00.000Z
Window: 2026-01-14T00:00:00.000Z through 2026-07-12T00:00:00.000Z

Source and correction path

NOAA Coral Reef Watch Degree Heating Weeksource · daily ·authored illustration
Illustrative service demand, use, beneficiary and model inputssource · replay dependent ·authored illustration
coral-heat-dhwregistered rule · NOAA Coral Reef Watch ·not transferable by default

No source-data or claim correction is recorded for this selected claim.

Read the service systems as a table

Accessible service-system projection
Region	Condition	Adequacy	Claim	Confidence	Freshness
Mesoamerican Caribbean	51	87%	validated-threshold	high	current
Lower Danube	72	114%	forecast-crossing	medium	current
Humboldt Current	64	88%	trend-change	medium	current
Congo Basin	76	not comparable	reference-anomaly	high	current
Ganges–Brahmaputra Delta	78	102%	trend-change	medium	aging
California Central Valley	58	94%	trend-change	medium	current
Chesapeake Bay	74	not comparable	trend-change	medium	current
Whanganui River corridor	77	not comparable	trend-change	medium	aging
Southern California urban region	68	97%	data-observability	low	stale

Artifact Contract 0.1 · revision179

Download the selected finding with its sources, dates, calculations and uncertainty so another reader can check it.

Download Artifact Contract